January 5, 2017

100 Words -- The Fog Of Intelligence

Donald Trump continues to cast doubt on the intelligence community’s conclusion that the Russian government hacked the DNC during the last election. His basic assertion is that there’s no way to be absolutely certain. In this he is absolutely correct. Absolute certainty, especially in intelligence assessments, is always rare. It’s true for this incident, just as it will be true for some future crisis, possibly one involving Russia, when he will have to decide whether or not to act based on intelligence that is less than certain. My hope is he’ll do okay. But for now, it’s only a hope.

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